Friday, March 30, 2007

The day's market - March 30, 2007

The Philippine stock market continue to follow the lead of Wall Street. The DJIA was higher by 48.39 points overnight on better than expected GDP data to close at 12,348.75.

PSEi previous close 3151.72

time--------------up----------------PSEi
9:32-------------16.27
9:43-------------36.07
10:08-----------40.64
10:26-----------42.13
10:45-----------53.65
11:02------------55.45
11:27------------47.10
11:43------------52.03
11:52------------48.29
11:53------------40.82
11:57------------46.98
12:01------------51.83--------3203.55
Market Close.

Advancers 74
Decliners 39

The market sentiment was boosted by news that inflation for March may be between 2 to 2.6%, the lowest in 17 years (since 1990). The market also closed the week very strong on first quarter window dressing and the momentum built up as it tested the 3200 level.

In order to break out of the consolidation mode that the market is currently in, it has to break above the 3,220 level to continue to higher levels.

Top gainers for the week
CAC +45.16%
MHC +28.00%
SCC +27.91%

Biggest Decliners for the week
ICTV -31.51%
UW -28.00%
AAA -23.33%

Week-on-week % change
PSEi +1.05%
M-O sector +5.33%
Property sector +4.15%
Holdings sector +0.49%
Financial sector +0.18%
Industrial sector -0.37%

Value turnover for the week was around PhP 26 billion (but almost half were cross and block transactions).

The Philippine Peso was weaker and traded at the PhP 48.20 - 48.30 to $ 1.00 range.

World Crude prices rose from its 6 month highs (it is already up more than 10% since March 20), as the Britain - Iran standoff (regarding the hostaged British soldiers) is already a week old and continues to drag on. Oil was trading near the $67 a barrel level earlier in the day.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

The day's market - March 29, 2007

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was again down overnight. It fell by 96.93 points to close at 12,300.36. It has now declined by more than 160 points the past two trading days. As expected and with a dearth of market moving news, the Philippine Stock market followed suit.

PSEi previous close 3162.81 (March 28, 2007)

time-----------down--------------PSEi
9:31------------12.92
9:47------------18.89
9:58------------22.23
10:14-----------24.01
10:27-----------26.48------------3136.33 (day's low)

10:35 ----------------PhP 48.332 to $ 1.00

10:50----------20.10
11:11-----------10.37
11:24-----------17.27
11:50-----------18.10
12:01-----------11.09------------3151.72
Market Close.

It was another day of lackluster trade. Most asian markets were down and the Philippine peso was also weaker.

Value turenover was at PhP 4.39 billion but more than half or PhP 2.313 billion were cross transactions.

Advancers 32
Decliners 52

Sectoral Indices
M-O +1.30%
Services +0.08%
Property -1.08%
Financial -0.40%
Holdings -0.34%
Industrial -0.16%

The resumption of trading of RCBC shares added volume to the market (its total turnover amounted to PhP 1.32 billion) but it failed to buoy up sentiment. Its follow on offer had its shares priced at PhP 27.00. It opened trade at PhP 29.00 but it closed at PhP 27.50.

Consolidation continues.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Oil Exploration and Industry Briefing

The Philippine Stock Exchange and Petron Corporation presented an Oil Exploration Industry Briefing today (March 28, 2007 - 3 pm) at the Trading Floor of the PSE Centre, in Ortigas.

The speakers included ;
Mr. Rafael del Pilar - Pres, PNOC -Exploration Corporation whose topic was "The Business of Exploring for Oil and Gas"
and Dir. Resty G. Taganas Jr. - OIC, Energy Resource Development Bureau, Department of Energy who talked on "Oil and Gas Exploration in the Philippines"

The discussions included the basics regarding Petroleum, including its formation and a whole technicals and terminologies regarding the exploration cycle.



Some things i learned:

2/3 of the world's energy sources are from petroleum.

The Philippines gets 46% of its energy requirements from petroleum.

The Philippines consumes 325,000 BOPD (Barrels of Petroleum per day) and 13,000 BOPD is produced locally.

Proven Oil reserves by Geographic regions (as of Jan 1, 2006) in billions of barrels
Middle East 743
North America 213
Central Ameria 103
Africa 103
Eurasia 79
Asia 36
Europe 15
Total 1.293 billion barrels

OPEC countries 901.67 million barrels
Non OPEC 390.9 million barrels


There are 16 sedimentary basins in the Philippines (worldwide, there are about 600). A sedimentary basin are large areas of thick sedimentary rocks which tend to have large petroleum deposits.

Cagayan
Ilocos
West Luzon
Central Luzon
Bicol Shelf - Lamon Bay
South East Luzon
Iloilo - West Masbate
Visayan
Agusan - Davao
Cotabato
Sulu Sea
Reed Bank
Northwest Palawan
Mindoro - Cuyo platform
East Palawan
South west Palawan

Of the 16 sedimentary basins in the Philippines, twelve have good prospects to have oil deposits. So far, only the North West Palawan basin is producing significant quantities

In terms of profitability in Oil exploration, investors can find it worthwhile investing in the Philippines.
Using profits in producing 25 million barrels in Ireland as a benchmark, the Philippines ranks second and would need to produce only 40 million barrels to reach the same profit level. Compare this to Indonesia which needs to produce 144 million barrels, China 46 million and Gabon 75 million barrels.

By May this year, 9 areas are up for bidding for exploration companies.



Source: My scribbled notes which needed a lot of decoding and interpretation

The day's market - March 28, 2007

It was another uneventful trading day in the Philippine stock market. Investors again just took the cue from the decline in the US markets. The DJIA fell by 71.78 points to close at 12,397.29 and the tech laden Nasdaq, declined by 18.20 points to close at 2437.43.

PSEi previous close 3174.75 (March 27,2007)

time------------change----------------------PSEi
9:31-------------up 2.12
9:35------------down 1.74
9:50------------------11.41
10:12-----------------17.52
10:58-----------------19.36
11:10-----------------20.25
11:38-----------------15.00
12:01-----------------11.94---------------3162.81
Market Close


The Philippine peso traded from PhP 48.205 - 48.209 to the US dollar and all asian markets were down in the morning session.

Value turnover was at PhP 3.3 billion with PhP 1.5 billion in cross transactions and another PhP 600 million in block sales.

Decliners outnumbered gainers 68 to 30.

The Property (+ 2.61%) and Services (-1.68%) sectors led the index gainers and decliners respectively.

The consolidation mode between the 3,100 - 3,200 level continues as volumes remain low and investors/traders are awaiting at the sidelines.

Tomorrow's trading may be perked up with the resumption of trade of RCBC shares after their follow on offering.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

The day's market - March 27, 2007

The market continues its consolidation between thwe 3,100 - 3,200 range. It regained yesterday's losses as the US market showed resiliency amid data that showed falling sales in the New Housing Market. The DJIA lost only 11.94 points to close at 12,469.07.

PSEi previous close - 3150.04 (March 26, 2007)

time----------up----------PSEi
9:31---------16.59
9:45---------32.34
9:51---------36.10-------3186.14
10:05-------28.06
10:26-------32.18
11:15--------27.58
11:27--------22.70
11:57--------18.73
12:02--------24.71-------3174.75
Market Close.

Decliners however outnumbered Gainers 63 to 43.

Value turnover was at PhP 3.079 billion.

Sectoral Indices
Property +1.54%
Services +1.27%
Industrial +0.57%
M-O -0.83%
Holdings -0.39%
Financial -0.08%

Monday, March 26, 2007

The day's market - March 26, 2007

Local equities opened on a positive note and tried to build a momentum to challenge the 3,200 level. But with trades continuing to focus on the small cap stocks and most investors on the sidelines ahead of the lenten break, the market drifted lower to continue its consolidation from Friday.

PSEi previous close - 3170.05 (March 23, 2007)

time-----------change-----------PSEi
9:31------------up 11.28
9:45------------up 5.81
10:00----------down 6.46
10:30----------down 14.94
------------------------PhP 48.212 vs $ 1.00
10:46----------down 14.00
11:04----------down 19.52
11:18----------down 16.91
11:41----------down 16.91
12:01----------down 20.01------3150.04
Market Close.

Value turnover PhP 2.893 billion
Gainers and Decliners were even at 55 each.

Only the M-O (+2.84%) sector managed to advance as the sector was favored my market players.



With the US market again closing relatively flat on Friday,the local equities market was hard pressed to look for directional leads. With a long break from trading coming up by next week, a consolidation at the 3,100-3,200 level is unfolding as some investors opt to cash in.

Some punters however are quick to the draw and are ready to jump in select small cap stocks that are enjoying brisk trading volumes and they keep trading active.

On Thursday, RCBC will commence trading after its follow on offering and may invite interest.

Friday, March 23, 2007

The Week That Was - March 19 to 23, 2007

The market ended the week on a weak note as US markets also took a breather from its strong run up the past day's. It was only up by 13.62 points overnight to end at 12461.14

The day's market - March 23, 2007

PSEi previous close - 3178.32

time----------change-----------PSEi
9:31-----------up 4.98
9:36--------------1.85

Local equities tried to rally on the onset to continue its advancing momentum. But concerns that the US DJIA may be ripe for a correction esp since iits rally may have lost steam had profit takers on a selling mode. With the weekend coming uo, investors also preferred to cash in.
The peso was trading at PhP 48.166 vs $ 1.00

9:37-------down 0.06
9:46-------------0.82
9:52-------------9.11
10:03-----------16.05
10:11------------25.64
10:30-----------27.72
10:33-----------31.42
10:38-----------25.82
10:59-----------36.77----------3141.55

The market touched its low and rallied in the last hour to limit losses.

11:22-----------29.65
11:44-----------25.45
11:48-----------20.41
11:51-----------15.53
11:57-----------13.05
11:59-----------12.96
12:01------------8.27
Market Close.



The week's news.

US Fed keeps key rate steady at 5.25%
---------Philippine Star B-10 March 23, 2007

RP likely to beat '07 BOP surplus goal
....The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas expects the country to beat its balance of payments surplus forecast of $1.6 billion this year........
....The Philippines had a record BOP surplus of $3.77 billion in 2006, above the central bank's forecast of $2.8 billion and the surplus of $2.41 billion in 2005...
--------Philippine Star B-1 March 23, 2007

China property giant to invest $2-$4 billion
--------BusinessWorld frontpage March 22,2007

Vega's Wynn Resorts: Manila can be prime gaming hub
..........WYNN resorts Ltd of Las Vegas fame is keen on investing anywhere from $500 million to $1.5 billion for a hotel-resort with casino here, with one official saying the Philippines has the potential of overtaking Macau as a prime gaming destination in seven to 10 years.........

Pagcor all set for Phase I of "Entertainment City'
-------BusinessMirror front page March 22,2007

Investments OK'd by BOI, Peza in Jan-Feb up 125%
---------BusinessMirror A2- March 22, 2007


The week's trading.

-----------------Last week-----Close----------UP--------Change
PHISIX----------3,062.25-----3,170.05------107.80----+3.52%
HOLDINGS------1,827.80-----1,847.85-------20.05----+1.09%
INDUSTRIAL----4,157.68-----4,264.98-----107.30----+2.58%
PROPERTY------1,376.90-----1,395.91-------19.01----+1.38%
FINANCIAL-------892.90-------917.23-------24.33----+2.72%
MINING-OIL----4,960.01-----5,280.55-----320.54----+6.46%
ALL SHARES----1,980.45-----2,038.09------57.64----+2.91%


TOP GAINERS:
1. SINO: PhP0.33; +60.98%
2. CYBR: PhP0.44; +57.14%
3. ZIP: PhP1.00; +51.52%

WORST DECLINERS:
1. JOH: PhP1.02; -36.25%
2. CAC: PhP1.24; -34.74%
3. MHC: PhP0.50; -13.79%

VALUE TURNOVER:
1. ALI: PhP3,292 mn (close: PhP15.75; unch)
2. TEL: PhP2,040 mn (close: PhP2,495.00; +9.19%)
3. AC: PhP1,081 mn (close: PhP545.00; -1.80%)

Thursday, March 22, 2007

The day's market - March 22, 2007

Local equities once again surged and broke above the 3,100 level easily as the US market continued its strong upward trend from the past days. The Dow Jones was up another 159.42 points to end at 12,447.52

PSEi previous close 3090.47 - (March 21, 2007)

time------------up--------------------PSEi
9:31------------36.80
9:45------------72.99
10:00----------91.12
10:15----------98.32
10:27---------102.06-----------------3192.53

The first hour of the trading day was marked by a buying frenzy fueled by the second and thirdliners ; in order to get into the equities bandwagon. After reaching its day's high, a mild correction set in but strong buying support had the market keeping most of its gains. The peso at this point was also stronger at PhP 48.266 to $ 1.00.

10:40----------98.36
10:59----------86.55
11:15----------89.11
11;32----------93.40
11:46----------89.99
11:54----------97.66
12:01----------87.55(+2.84%)--------3178.32
Market Close.

Value turnover also improved to PhP 5.413 billion.

Gainers 86
Decliners 30

Sectoral indices advanced across-the-board.
Services +4.32%
M-O +3.10%
Property +3.08%
Financial +2.28%
Industrial +1.12%
Holdings +0.93%

Momentum is seen to carry the market towards the 3,200 level. But with the US market advancing around 330 points in the past three days alone, a big retracement in the Dow Jones could trigger another bout of selling in local equities and may be taken as an excuse to profit take.

Some of the smaller cap stocks have also risen tremendously and even reached the intraday price ceilings in brisk trading. They may also be prone to a steep correction which could affect market sentiment.

The market is awashed with liquidity and confidence in the market is slowly being built up. Trading range is now raise to 3,100 - 3220.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

The day's market - March 21, 2007

The Philippine stockmarket once again rose on back of the advance in US markets overnight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up by 61.93 points to close at 12,288.10. With WallStreet seen to be stabilizing at the moment, and with most asian markets higher in the morning trading session, the days' gains in the local equities market were now sustained . Second and thirdliner stocks enjoyed brisk trading and buoyed up investor sentiment.

PSEI previous close 3039.38 (March 20, 2007)

time -------------up
9:30-----------14.89
9:43-----------24.89
10:01----------40.50
10:18----------46.21
11:01----------42.28
11:16----------45.72
11;54----------43.95
12:01----------51.09 (+1.68%)
Market Close.

The PSEi closed at 3,090.47, its day high. Momentum is seen to carry the market in testing the 3,100 resistance level.

Value turnover was flat at PhP 2.461 and punters continue to focus on small cap stocks.

Gainers 90
Decliners 23

Sectoral Indices were higher across-the-board.
Services +3.30%
Industrial +1.16%
M-O +1.08%
property +1.07%
Holdings +0.69%
Financial +0.60%

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

The days' market - March 20, 2007

Stock prices in the local equities market opened firm as a knee jerk reaction to the big advance in the USDJIA. Selling pressure however took over by mid-session to wipe out the early gains and the market ended flat.

PSEi previous close - 3041.38 (March 19, 2007)

time-----------change
9:31-----------up 12.62
9:45-----------up 27.07
10:02----------up 32.89
10:35----------up 18.89
11:02----------up 6.20
11:19----------down 0.21
12:01----------down 2.07 (-0.068%)
Market close.

Investors still lacked confidence in the sustainability of a market rally at this point because of lingering fears of sudden huge swings in overseas markets esp in the USDJIA.
This can be seen in the selloff in the latter part of the trading day and the declining value turnover which was at only PhP 2.127 billion today.

Local punters are focusing in the trading of the second and third tier stocks. The day's Gainers still managed to outnumber Decliners 59 to 35.

Most buyers are content to post their orders at lower prices and are reluctant to buy up stocks prices. Others are content to stay in the sidelines for the meantime.

Market uncertainty persists as sectoral indices were also mixed. The M-O (+0.91%), Financial (+0.40%) and Holdings (+0.05%) sectors were up; while the Industrial (-0.22%), Services (-0.17%) and Property (-0.12%)sectors declined

The market is still trying to strengthen its base at the 3,000 level and is continuing its consolidation. The PSEi ended at 3039.31.

Before the market opens - March 20, 2007

The 91 T-bill rate was up slightly yesterday, to 2.998% from 2.935% previously in the March 5, auctions.
The yield for the 182-day notes went up to 3.462% from 3.395% as the Bureau of Treasury (BTr) rejected all bids for the one-year notes.


The DJIA was up by 115.76 (+0.96%) points overnight and closed at 12,226.17.

Monday, March 19, 2007

The day's market - March 19, 2007

Local equities is now on a consolidation phase above the 3,000 level. And once again, with lack of leads, it took its cue from the DJIA which declined 49.27 points to end at 12,110.41 on Friday. The Philippine stock market followed suit and traded lower today.

PSEi previous close 3,041.38 (March 16, 2007)

time------------change
9:31------------up 2.78
9:36------------down 1.50
9:39------------down 8.59
9:46------------down 10.98
9:48------------down 13.30
9:50------------down 8.51
9:52------------down 6.84
9:54------------down 11.45
9:55------------down 14.13
10:08-----------down 7.99
10:15-----------down 15.26
10:29-----------down 11.53
10:52-----------down 13.43
11:03-----------down 16.96
11:10-----------down 17.09
11:12-----------down 20.72
11:17-----------down 17.06
11:41-----------down 21.63
11:53-----------down 20.68
11:58-----------down 26.59
12:01-----------down 20.87 (-0.68%) -------3041.38
Market Close.

Trading was relatively unventful and was at a narrow range with a downward bias.

Value turnover was at PhP 4.523 billion with PhP 3.295 in cross transactions.

Decliners led Gainers 53 to 44.

Sectoral Indices were mostly lower.
Property -1.79%
Holdings -0.87%
Financial -0.66%
Industrial -0.05%
Services +0.05%
M-O +0.12%

Biggest index issue losers
FLI -3.61%
MER -3.60%
LC -3.57%
MEG -3.28%
LCB -3.03%

In the morning session; the peso traded at PhP 48.839- 48.855 to $ 1.00 range and the other asian equities markets were all up.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

January-February (2007) budget deficit

The cumulative deficit of PhP 18.6 billion for the first two months of the year was PhP 21.8 billion lower than the PhP 40.4 billion recorded in the same period last year and was only 40% of the 1st quarter deficit ceiling of PhP 45.8 billion.

A budget surplus of PhP 11.1 billion in February (from a deficit of PhP 24.9 billion a year ago) was posted due to huge privatization proceeds and controlled spending.

Total revenues for the two month period went up by 18.5% to PhP 162.3 billion (shored up by PhP 25.2 billion from the sale of the government's indirect stake in PLDT) on Feb 28.

***The national government and three state owned financial institutions also plans to sell its combined 33% stake in Meralco in the 2nd half of the year as part of the state's privatization program

reference : Philippine Daily Inquirer March 17, 2007



Friday, March 16, 2007

Market consolidates above the 3,000 level

After the past days' volatile and unpredictable trading, local equities headed towards the weekend on a consolidation mode. Today, local equities moved in a narrow trading band just a little higher than the previous day's close.

PSEi previous close 3043.61 (March 15, 2007)

time------------up
9:31------------1.79
9:34------------8.32
9:36-----------22.35
9:43-----------12.69
10:07----------16.95
10:30----------10.79
10:43----------16.68
10:49----------9.80
10:57----------13.13
11:10----------15.98
11:25----------17.40
11:41----------18.15
11:52----------22.52
11:56----------15.20
12:01----------18.64
Market close.

The PSEi ended at 3062.25 , which is 1.21% lower than last week's close.

All sectors were lower week-on-week.
Property -1.39%
Financial -0.56%
Holdings -0.26%
Industrial -0.24%
M-O -0.09%

Investors turned to the smaller cap issues

The top gainers for the week
BSC +48.48%
JOH +48.15%
GPH +46.67%
DHC +11.00%
UW +36.67%
PHES +36.67
MVC +28.85%
PGPI +25.00%
MRC +22.86%
EIBR +22.22%

Thursday, March 15, 2007

The day's market - March 15, 2007

The Philippine stockmarket failed to recover with the rest of the region even if the DJIA was up overnight in WallStreet. Local equities opened higher but with PLDT being sold down, the PSEi soon fell to negative territory and this set the tone for the rest of the trading day.

PSEi previous close 3074.28 (March 14, 2007)
PLDT previous close PhP 2335

time ----- up / down -----PSEi ------ PLDT
9:31-------up 7.17 ----- 3081.45 --- 2335
9:34-------up 2.80 ------------------2320
9:37-----down 1.00
9:46-----down 3.59 -------------------2315
9:57-----down 15.76 ------------------2300
10:04----down 19.84-------------------2290
10:25----down 24,33-------------------2280
10:40----down 34.20-------------------2270
10:57----down 38.09
11:23----down 41.54-------------------2260
11:38----down 35.55
11:51----down 32.66
12:01----down 30.67-----3043.61------2260

All asian markets were up and the peso was at PhP 48.631 to $ 1.00 in the morning trade.
The previous day's drop was a real confidence breaker. Investors are now faced with a lot of uncertainty and stayed at the sidelines.

The PSEi is now just hovering above the 3,000 level.

Advancers however outnumbered decliners 48 to 43 as second and thirdliners were the focus of attention by traders.

Value turnover was also lower at PhP 2.359 billion.

Sectoral indices were mixed.
Industrial +0.63%
M-O +0.44%
Property +0.40%
Services -2.79%
Holdings -1.02%
Financial -0.38%

With the weekend coming and the Holy Week just around the corner, consolidation at around the 3,000 to 3,100 level is seen with attention turning to small cap stocks. Assuming, that there would be no more major shocks in the foreign equities market, the 3,000 level is likely to hold.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Huge drop in the US DJIA drags local equities down anew

The US market suffered another steep drop and the US Dow Lones Industrial Average (US DJIA)declined by 242.66 (-1.97%) points to close at 12075.96. This rattled local investors once again and the market opened immediately down by about a hundred points and never recovered.


PSEi previous close 3181.96 (March 13, 2007)

time----------down-----------PSEi
9:31----------99.71---------3082.25 (open)
9:32----------106.27
9:37----------116.72
9:53----------104.07
10:47---------93.71
10:57---------89.50
11:18---------96.15
11:38--------110.02
11:54--------118.15---------3063.81 (low)
11:59--------109.70
12:01--------107.68---------3074.28( close)
Market Close.

Advancers 110
Decliners 14

Value turnover phP 4.283 billion

All sectors were down.
Property -4.54%
M-O -3.35%
Financial -3.30%
Holdings -3.10%
Services -2.80%
Industrial -2.50%



Asian markets were down in the morning trade.
PLDT which was at PhP 2,400 previously; opened trading at PhP 2,330 and ended at PhP 2335.
The peso was also weaker against the dollar. It was at the PhP 48.70 - 48.72 level in morning trade.


The market retreated after advancing around 160 points the past three days.
The Dow Jones is just hovering just above the 12,000 level and a breach of the support level might lead to another acceleration of a selldown.
It is again important for the 3,000 level to hold its ground to avert further panic.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

The day's market - March 13, 2007

Local investors seems to have gotten back confidence in the market or excess funds just have no other place to park owing to low interest rates and high liquidity. In any case, the stockmarket continues its recovery and is on sight to test the 3,200 level.

PSEi previous close 3124.96 (March 12, 2007)

time----------------up----------------PSEi
9:31--------------15.76-------------3140.72
9:45--------------24.46
9:46--------------32.46
9:55--------------46.59
10:06-------------52.67
10:35-------------60.01
10:41-------------56.41
10:56-------------60.72
11:14-------------51.74
11:18-------------50.86
11;25-------------49.22
11:36-------------47.83
11:49-------------53.35
11;54-------------46.27
12:00-------------57.00---------3181.96

The market opened strong and once again after the initial runup, it was able to maintain its gains throughout the trading session.

Value turnover PhP 3.66 billion.

Advancers outnumbered Decliners 81 to 32.

All sectors were up.
Holdings +2.62%
Property +2.55%
Services +1.67%
Financial +1.53%
M-O +1.25%
Industrial +0.77%




News that the debt of the National Government declined by about 1% (to PhP 3.851 trillion at the end of Dec 2006 from PhP 3.888 trillion in 2005), also added to the confidence in the country's economic fundamentals.
As of end 2006, the debt to GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ratio went down to 64% from the end 2005 level of 72%. ( The target is 56% by 2008).
* 44% (PhP 1.697 trillion) owed to foreign creditors; and 56% (PhP 2.154 trillion) to domestic creditors


Political news somehow are still just ignored. Over the weekend, the Comelec office burned down and just today, the "Favorita and Figaro" scandal implicating the First Gentleman was in the papers. The PSEi is now up by 6.7% year to date.

Article from BusinessWorld - March 13, 2007



Quote from an interview regarding market performance and outlook.
Article from BusinessWorld - March 13, 2007 (Tuesday)





* Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) update.
The DJIA was up 42.40 (0.34%) points overnight to close at 12,318.62.

Monday, March 12, 2007

The day's market - March 12, 2007

The local stock market again advanced and locked in modest gains as it closed near its high. It is currently trying to build a base at the 3,100 level as it also slowly regains investor confidence in equities .

PSEi previous close 3099.82 (March 9, 2007)

time--------------------PSEi--------------up
open(9:31am)----------3107.37----------7.55
high--------------------3126.38---------26.56
PhP vs $(10:06 am)--------PhP 48.442
low(9:32am)-------- ---3103.66---------3.84
close(12:01)------------3124.96---------25.14 (0.81%)

Advancers 61
Decliners 25

Sectoral Indices were mostly up. Only the M-O (-0.35%) counter closed lower.
The Financial (+1.45%); Holdings (+1.27%) and Industrial (+0.82% ) sectors led the advance.

Over the weekend - March 10 -11 2007

Exports surged by 27.35 to $ 4.17 bn in January.
Electronics made up more than half or $2.44 bn. The sector was up by 14.5%.


The DJIA was up by 15.62 points on Friday. It closed at 12276.32

Friday, March 9, 2007

The day's market - March 9, 2007

The local equities market not only managed to hold the 3,000 index level but it even surged to test the next resistance at 3,100.
With the DJIA advancing modestly by 68.25 points, investors regained confidence to jump in the market.

The decision of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to freeze the overnight borrowing (7.5%) and lending (9.75%) rates and keep its tiered interest rate scheme intact (for the 4th month) assured the financial markets of ample liquidity in the system.

PSEi previous close 3028.37 (March 8, 2007)

time---------up--------PSEi
9:30--------21.54
9:42--------37.57 (PLDT opened at PhP 2350 from a previous close of PhP 2300)
10:07 ------76.12-----3104.49 (PLDT trading at PhP 2385)
10:52--------------------------------PhP 48.510 to $ 1.00
11:01-------83.73------3112.10 (the day's high)
11:37---------------------------------PhP 48.511 to $ 1.00
11:38-------71.63------3100.00
12:01-------71.45------3099.82 (up by 2.36% for the day)
Market Close.

All sectors were up.
M-O +5.42%
Property +2.96%
Services +2.29%
Industrial +2.02%
Financial +1.93%
Holdings +1.18%

Week-on-week
PSEi
March 2 : 3140.34
March 9: 3099.82
% change: -1.29%

The week's top gainers:
AGI +60.56%
JOH +20.00%
LR +20.00%

The week's biggest losers:
EIBR -28.00%
LAND -26.19%
MHI -25.77%

Thursday, March 8, 2007

The day's market - March 8, 2007

The local equities market has still not stabilized fully. It just tracked the fall in the US market. The DJIA however just declined by 15.15 points to close at 12,192.45.

PLDT ADRs was up by $0.10, but at its closing price of $48.10, its conversion price (at 48.70 to $ 1.00) is approximately PhP 2,340. This is still lower than the previous close of PhP 2,370.


PSEi previous close 3,063.26 (march 7, 2007)

The market opened marginally up (+0.46), but with the stock price of PLDT immediately dropping (opening price at PhP 2,360) , the downtrend was set for the day and sentiment dampened.

A half hour into trading, the market was down by 16 poits and PLDT was at PhP 2325.

After 45 minutes (10:45 am); PLDT was down further to PhP 2300 and the market was down by 26.95. The peso was at PhP 48.694 to the dollar.

And after another 45 minutes (11:00 am), PLDT sank to PhP 2285 and the index was down by 37.16 points at 3,026.10.

By 11:30, PLDT sank to a day's low of PhP 2,280, the peso was at PhP 48.689 to $ 1.00 and market was down by 44.60 to 3018.66.

The PSEi touched bottom 2 minutes before the bell at 3017.31 (-45.95 points) but surged at the cut losses to 34.89 (-1.14%) points and close at 3028.37

At the closing bell at noon, the peso was at PhP 48.687 and asian markets (led by HongKong +125.69 and Japan +165.82) were all up.



Sectoral indices were mostly down and only the Industrial (+0.45%) sector managed to end on the upside. The Services (-2.63%), M-O (-1.72%) and Property (-1.23%) sectors dragged the market lower.

Decliners led gainers 77 to 32.

Value turnover was at PhP 4 bn

As expected, short term volatility is still being experienced and investors still prone to bouts of panic/induced selling. It is critical for the index to hold at the 3,000 -3,020 level.

Wednesday, March 7, 2007

Article from business.inquirer.net - March 7, 2007

......"The big jump in the US market last night and the continued rebound in Asian markets this morning, as well as the lower inflation, encouraged investors to rebuild their positions," Westlink Global Equities chairman Rommel Macapagal said.


"But I don't think investor confidence has been fully restored. Volatility will likely persist in the near term as we remain hostage to external factors despite our improving macroeconomic fundamentals," he added.


Technically, Macapagal said the market needs to consolidate or build a base above 3,000 points to be able to sustain its gains.....



Interview regarding the today's (March 7, 2007) market movement.


Source: Xinhua Financial News Service/ business.inquirer.net



UPDATE: This quote also came out in the Philippine Star Business Pages (B-2) - March 8, 2007

The day's market - March 7,2007

The equities market immediately opened higher by around 100 points and maintained its gains the rest of the trading day. Investors got a boost from the gains in the US Markets, most asian markets and the better than expected inflation figures.

PSEi previous close 2973.27 (March 6, 2007)

time---------up---------PSEi
9:31-------99.09-------3072.36
9:31------102.38
9:32------108.55
9:34------112.93
9:37------116.24
9:38------118.07
9:39------115.19
9:49------120.51
9:50------122.29------3095.56

The market reached its day's high after 20 minutes of trading as the 3100 proved to be a resistance and profit takers took the opportunity to liquidate gains. The market then just drifted lower the rest of the trading session, but maintained the bulk of its hefty gains for the day.

9:52------112.35
9:53------110.70
9:54------108.93
9:55------106.90
9:58------103.54
9:59-------99.68
10:00-----94.61
10:02-----99.02
10:03-----93.09
10:05-----97.46
10:06----100.39
10:07-----98.71
10:11-----96.87
10:12----101.12
10:13----102.43
10:14----103.78
10:17----109.65
10:20----102.27
10:21-----97.13
10:25-----94.55
10:29-----87.03
10:33-----86.53
10:37-----88.17
10:54-----87.52
11:05----------------PhP 48.753 to $ 1.00
11:06-----85.92
11:17-----83.82
11:23-----86.74
11:31----------------PhP 48.744 to $ 1.00
11:36-----91.28
11:52-----94.91
11:56-----95.59
11:57-----97.74
11:58-----95.97
11:59-----92.71
12:01-----89.99-------3063.26
Market Close.

The market broke convincingly above the 3,000 level and the recovery gives back investors the confidence to buy in the market during dips. The inflation figure and PLDT's profit more or less shows us that the fundamentals are still intact.

Other movements:
PLDT (TEL)
previous PhP 2345
open PhP 2450
high PhP 2450
close PhP 2370

All sectors closed higher.
Holdings +5.53%
Property +4.67%
M-O +3.99%
Financial +2.29%
services +1.70%
Industrial +1.54%

Gainers outnumbered Losers 109 to 14.


The equities market is still volatile and still prone to huge swings day to day. Even the minute by minute change in the index shows brisk trading and abrupt changes in market direction. The important thing at this point is for investors to gain confidence that the PSEi will hold at the 3,000 level. Short term direction will still be affected by huge movements in the foreign markets.

February (2007) Inflation at a 4 year low

Inflation for February was down to 2.6%, the slowest rate in four years. It was the lowest recorded since December 2002, when the rate stood at 2.5%. In the same month last year, inflation was 7.6%.



Other Market Matters that matter:

The DJIA rebounded by 157.18 (1.30%) points to close at 12,207.59.

Year to date, the PSEi is now down by 0.30% after being up by around 13% at one point.

PLDT posts a 3% increase in net income to a record PhP 35.1 in 2006 from PhP 34.1 in 2005.


Reference: The Philippine Star, Business Pages

Article from The Philippine Star - March 7,2007

............." We hope the market will stabilize during the next session. Little by little, investors are regaining their confidence"...........

.............."There was still a bit of a sell-down, but the important thing is the panic selling has abated"......


Quotes from an interview regarding the previous day's trading (March 6, 2007)


Source: The Philippine Star Business Pages B-2

Tuesday, March 6, 2007

Downtrend Decelerates.

The market continued to go down as the DJIA was also lower overnight. Asian markets were higher but local equities drifted lower as investors still try to regain confidence. With the PSEi trading below the 3,000 level and the past day's huge declines still fresh, buyers are still wary to bid up prices and remain contented waiting for sellers to sell down stocks at lower prices.

PSEi previous close 2997.88 (March 5, 2007)
time-----down--------PSEi
9:31-----8.44-------2989.44
9:32-----5.11
9:34-----10.73
9:35-----12.17
9:36-----12.56
9:37
----------Japan-------up 133.64
----------Singapore---up 33.67
----------Taiwan------up 22.93
----------S. Korea----up 18.05
----------Malaysia----up 11.92
9:38------------------PhP 48.779 to $ 1.00
9:40----10.38
9:43-----6.98
9:45-----5.02
9:57-----8.37
9:59-----4.71
10:02----10.49
10:03----13.17
10:17----16.33--------2981.55

The minor support at 2980 was tested and broken and the market moved at another lower trading range (2950 - 2980).

10:18----18.45
10:20----18.81
10;21----20.87
10:23----19.20
10:25----18.13
10:27----20.17
10:31----17.21
10:33----15.53
10:34----14.65
10:36----20.33
10:38----21.43
10:42----20.89
10:46----16.25
10:52----18.77
10:53----22.11
10:55----21.29
10:59----19.61
11:11----21.12
11:12----22.44
11:14----25.02
11:16----27.07
11:17
----------HongKong----up 243.15
----------Japan-------up 131.73
----------Singapore---up 20.98
----------Taiwan------up 50.78
----------S. Korea----up 16.92
----------Malaysia----up 5.98
----------Indonesia---up 12.982
11:18-----------------PhP 48.768 to $ 1.00
11:18----21.89
11:19----23.11
11:21----22.52
11:24----26.70
11:25----29.85
11:26----32.08-----2965.80

The market touches its day's low but recovers a little ground.

11:35----27.96
11:39----20.39
11:45----27.41
11:57----23.69
12:01----24.61-----2973.27
Market Close.


The drop was now tempered and some bargain hunters started take positions in the market.
There were 49 gainers agains 62 decliners.

Even some sectors now closed higher.
Holdings -3.32%
Industrial -1.11%
Services -0.54%
Financial -0.13%
Property +0.41%
M-O +3.34%

The market needs to scale above the key 3,000 level and stay above it convincingly to instill back confidence in investors.

Monday, March 5, 2007

Stock investors still jittery. PSEi tests the 3,000 level

The market mirrorred the fall in the USDJIA (down about 120 points) last Friday and the weekend break did not calm nervous investors. The fall in other asian markets also aggravated the situation.
The market gapped down upon the opening bell and immediately broke the 3,100 support level. The downtrend accelerated and created an avalanche of sell-offs.

The days' market - March 5, 2007

PSEi previous close - 3,140.34 (March 2, 2007)

time-----down----------PSEi
9:31-----39.61----------3100.73
9:32-----44.53
9:34-----45.84
9:35-----47.61
9:36-----50.01
9:38-----52.86
9:40-----54.25
9:41-----58.84
9:43-----60.73
9:44-----70.92
9:46-----81.69
9:48-----83.25
9:55-----86.97
9:56-----90.82
9:57-----91.49
9:58-----94.19
10:00---96.36
10:01---99.68

By the first thirty minutes of trading, the market has lopped off 100 points.

10:02---100.96
10:03---103.54
10:04---107.29
10:08---110.92
10:09---113.41
10:11---114.93
10:13---117.07
10:15---117.96
10:16---120.14
10:17---116.37
10;19---120.20
10:24---120.99
10:25---123.77
10:26---123.88
10:27---127.06
10:29---130.81
10:30---132.87
10:32---138.82
10:35---140.14--------3000.20

Another thirty minutes passed and the PSEi tested the key 3,000 level. Another mild wave of selldowns had it dropping lower.

10:36----140.60------2999.74
10:40----141.29
10:45----148.43
10:46----160.88------2979.46
10:47----161.96
10:49----164.76
10:50----165.12
10:53----166.31
10:54----167.37-------2972.97

The market reaches the bottom for the day but the bounceback that was expected was relatively weak.

10:59----161.31
11:02----164.87
11:05----161.74
11:13----153.28
11:14----150.79
11:11----146.37
11:22----148.05
11:26----146.19
11:41----146.20
11:42----142.54
11:45----141.92
11:55----139.12
11:59----136.12
12:01----142.46---------2997.88
Market Close.

The market ended 4.5% lower than Friday's close.

12:02----------------------PhP 48.854 to $ 1.00
---------Nikkei (Japan)----- down 405.42 points
---------HangSeng (HongKong)------down 499.56

All sectors were down.

M-O -10.18%
Property -5.56%
Holdings -4.79%
Industrial -4.63%
Financial -4.29%
Services -3.10%

Decliners 145
Gainers 6

Even as economic managers insist that the fundamentals remain strong, the market fell as emotions led investors to exaggerate the selling mood. (The USDJIA fell just around 1.0% but the PSEi declined more than 4.5%).
This market drop is an opportunity to get into the equities market before it resumes its runup later in the year. Targets and outlook remain the same. Recovery will be seen once investor confidence is restored.

A trading strategy is best suited in this kind of volatile market.

Friday, March 2, 2007

Philippine Stocks drop in still volatile trade

The days' market - March 02, 2007
With the equities market very undecided, it took its cue from US markets which fell 34.29 points overnight after a modest rebound the previous trading session. World equities markets were still volatile as major asian markets were mixed (Hongkong was up while japan was down by 2pm Mla time). Even the US DJIA was down more than 200 points at one point but just closed with limited losses.


PSEI previous close 3,190.12 (March 01, 2007)

time-----------down-----------PSEi
9:31----------36.31------------3153.81
9:32----------46.29
9:33----------50.96
9:34----------53.13
9:37----------------------PhP 48.710 to $ 1.00
9:40----------79.17
9:41----------80.71
9:43----------84.43

Within the first 15 minutes, another wave of panic selling prevailed and the market reached its day's low. The peso was also generally weaker against the US dollar.

The market moves in a narrow range in the next hour.

9:50----------82.43
9:58----------72.92
10:00--------70.32
10:01--------68.60
10:03--------67.44
10:07--------------------PhP 48.715 to $ 1.00
10:10--------71.70
10:14--------74.92
10:23--------69.02
10:27--------64.33
10:33--------------------PhP 48.715
10:39--------71.51
10:42--------72.89
10:43--------73.34
10:50--------74.32
10:54--------66.23
11:00--------70.88
11:00--------------------PhP 48.713
11:01---------71.02
11:03---------73.03
11:08--------75.97
11:17---------66.61
11:19---------65.27

The market now tries to recover some of its losses .
11:21--------62.57
11:25--------60.88
11:28--------56.36
11:32---------------------Php 48.714
11:36--------49.00
11:37--------46.86
11:40--------38.10
11:42--------35.39------------3154.73

The PSEi reaches its day's high but selling accelerates as some investors squared off positions ahead of the weekend to avoid any more surprises.

11:54-------39.34
11:58-------47.23
12:01-------49.78------------3140.34
Market Close.

Decliners swamped gainers 115 to 17.
Value turnover was lower at PhP 4.22 bn


Sectors week-on-week

---------------last week----------this week------down---------% down
PSEi-----------3389.37---------3140.34-------249.3----------7.34%
Holdings------2041.77--------1865.76-------176.01--------8.62
Industrial-----4546.81--------4213.41-------333.40-------7.33
Property------1521.86---------1383.38-------138.48-------9.09
Financial------966.15----------905.26---------60.69--------6.30
M-O-----------5386.18----------4965.16-------421.02-------7.81




The week's biggest index issue decliners

FLI -15.96%
BPC -15.12%
BEL -14.81%
BDO -11.20%
PX -10.87%
MERB -10.69%
MEG -10.61%
EPCI -10.36%
MER -10.13%
SMPH -9.80%


The market is now just up by around 5.0% for the year after gaining more than 13% at one point. Some issues are now at more attractive prices and may be ripe for the picking in the next few days once a sense normalcy is established and volatility tempered.

It is important to keep in sight the reasons why you are investing in the stock market so it can guide your decisions in times like these. Stay in line with your investment objectives.

The weekend may hopefully calm the tension in world equities market.

Thursday, March 1, 2007

The Philippine Stock Market bounces back up by 4%

Investors were quick to realize that the previous days' panic selling was overblown. The market zoomed up upon the opening trades and it stayed on the high side. China recovered the day after its massive sell-off, major asian markets had limited losses (unlike the overdone drop of almost 8% that we had) and the US DJIA close higher by 50 points (even if the new housing sales data indicated that it fell by 16.6%).

PSEi previous close 3067.45 (February 28, 2007)

time---------up--------PSEi
9:31-------95.34------3162.79
9:34------101.74
9:38------114.29
9:40------118.91
9:41------129.41

After 10 minutes, the market breaks the 3,200 level.

9:42------135.12-----3202.57
9:43------134.16
9:44------139.92
9:45------142.03
9:46------147.00
9:47------148.89
9:50------141.67
9:52------147.22
9:59------147.25
10:01-----143.76
10:02-----152.89-----3220.34

The market hits the days' high in the first thirty minutes of trading. The upside was capped as profit takers (those that bought yesterday) started to sell.

10:03-----144.98
10:06-----138.24
10:10-----137.20
10:16-----134.27
10:18-----130.14
10:20-----125.60
10:23-----117.87
10:26-----120.16
10:32-----114.77
10:40-----112.87
10:55-----109.31
11:02-----104.86
11:06-----101.83
11:09-----100.27
11:16------98.57-----3166.02

The market tested its days' opening level and at this point, is now more than 50 points below its days' high.

11:23-----101.59
11:24-----104.59
11;26-----106.69
11:36-----116.13
11:50-----119.53
11:54-----121.65
11:57-----123.47
12:01-----122.67-----3190.12
Market Close.

With the market opening strong, there were few opportunities to ride the market's rebound. The few and the brave who got into the market yesterday were the ones who had a field day. If investors believe in the underlying strength of the economy and our financial markets, these sudden swings and glitches should be cues to step in the market.


Today, all sectors regained ground.
Property +4.62%
Services +4.31%
Financial +3.53%
Holdings +3.44%
M-O +2.91%
Industrial +2.24%

Top 10 index gainers
DMC +10.77%
BPI +8.06%
BPC +7.14%
SMPH +6.82%
ALI +6.56%
LCB +6.06%
ABS +5.49%
HLCM +4.88%
GLO +4.63%
BDO +4.50%

There were only two index issue decliners
FLI -1.19%
SMC -0.78%


Advancers heavily outnumbered decliners 105 to 22.
Value turnover was at Php 5.2 bn.

At this point, the market's resistance is at 3,200 - 3,220. For the short term direction, investors now await if there will be furhter reverberations from the previous day's drop or if everything has already stabilized especially in the US and Chinese equities markets.

But all in all, the correction was a welcome one, but as mentioned was severely overdone. Fundamentals, as of now remain.