Saturday, July 7, 2007

Market Matters - July 7, 2007

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up by 45.84 (+0.34%) on Friday to close at 13611.68.
US unemployment rate is unchanged at 4.5% in June. Jobs created were better than expected as payrolls rise by 132,000. Wages gain.
Oil prices rise on concerns that unrest in Nigeria may damage exports.
Source: Bloomberg TV

* An analyst interviewed in Bloomberg also presented his technical analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). He said that the chart with the indicators he is using as his refernece is signalling a significant reversal in about 1 1/2 to two weeks time. Though the DJIA may even reach 14,000, he sees a correction of up to 23% that will run for 6 to 8 months. The US equities market has been on the uptrend for more than 50 months now. The analyst says that the decline taht may come is just a healthy correction of the extended run up and is not an indication of a coming bear market.

It would be interesting to see how WallStreet performs up to the end of the year and how its movement will affect the Philippine Stock Market in the same time frame.



In the News:

Forex Reserves
The country's Gross International Reserves (GIR) rose further to a historic high of $26.4 bn in end-June (the previous all-time high was at $25.6 bn in May). The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas reported foreign capital continued to flow into the economy.
The figure is close to hitting the high-end of the full-year target of between $26-$26.6 bn.
The GIR in June is equivalent to 4.9 months worth of imports of goods and payment of services. It is also equivalent to 5.3 times the country's short-term, foreign currency-denominated debt based on original maturity and 2.8 times based on residual maturity.

Budget Spending and the Deficit
The Philippine National Government spent PhP 41.9 bn less than what is programmed in the first half, and the lower-than-expected spending helped rein in the budget deficit, according to the preliminary data from the Department of Finance.
For the period up to June, PhP 547.4 bn has only been spent vs he PhP 589.3 bn allocated for operations, infrastructure, social services and other expenditures. This was mainly attributed to the strong peso and the low interest rates, which reduced the government's debt servicing cost.
As a result, the budget deficit in the first half was estimated to have stood at just PhP 37.7 bn. Had the government spent as programmed, the deficit would have been PhP 79.6 bn. The full year target is at only PhP 63 bn.
Source/Reference: Philippine Daily Inquirer - July 7, 2007


The week that was - July 2- 6, 2007

---------------------last wk. -------this wk -------(+/-) -------(%chng )
PHISIX ----------3,665.23------3,758.84-----(+93.61)----(+2.55% )
HOLDINGS ------2,194.41-------2,270.07----(+75.66)----(+3.44% )
INDUSTRIAL ---5,148.42-------5,159.29-----(+10.87)---(+0.21% )
PROPERTY-------1,788.37------1,840.34-----(+51.97)----( +2.90% )
FINANCIAL------922.06--------1,012.30-----(+90.24)----(+9.78% )
MINING-OIL-----6,503.23------6,792.89-----(+289.66)---(+4.45% )
ALL SHARES -----2,361.15------2,411.33------(+50.18)----( +2.12% )

TOP GAINERS:
1. APR: PhP7.00;+75.00%
2. PA: PhP0.0525;+64.06%
3. ILI: PhP1.30; +44.44%

WORST DECLINERS:
1. WIN: PhP0.45; -16.67%
2. PRC: PhP3.35; -16.25%
3. DHC: PhP5.20; -13.33%

VALUE TURNOVER:
1. ALI: PhP3,496 mn (close: PhP17.75; +1.43%)
2. TEL: PhP1,913 mn (close: PhP2,715.00; +2.45%)
3. AC: PhP1,127 mn (close: PhP565.00; +3.67%)

Friday, July 6, 2007

The day's market - July 06, 2007

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was down by 11.46 (-0.08%) points and closed at 13565.84.

The last minute surge from yesterday may be attributed to the better than expected June inflation figures.


The cost of goods and services in the Phlippines generally moved down a bit in June and allowed inflation to average lower to 2.3% from 2.4% in May. It was at the lower range of the 2.2% - 2.9% initial expected figures. The resumption of the school calendar (and higher tuition fees) and world oil-price hikes were earlier feared to ramp up inflation in June.
....................."the impact of higher world oil prices and ample liquidity were tempered by the positive effects of the strong peso and generally favorable food supply conditions"....................
------------Banko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando M. Tetangco Jr.

The 2.3% inflation in June brings the year-to-date inflation rate to 2.6%, "still below the Development Budget Coordination Committee target of 4.0% to 5.0%" according to the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA)
source/reference: BusinessMirror July6-7, 2007



PSEi previous close - 3802.32 (July 05, 2007)

time-------------change------------PSEi
9:31-------------up 16.80-----------3819.12
9:32----------------19.38
9:38----------------20.09-----------3822.41 (new all time high)

The market established a new high, as strong momentum from yesterday's closing buying spree spilled over to today's initial trades. But the euphoric run up dissipates after the first minutes of the trading day, and a correction soon set in.

9:41-------------up 15.40
9:42----------------13.48
9:43----------------11.88
9:45----------------10.94
9:48-----------------8.25
9:52-----------------4.48
9:54-----------------3.90
9:55-----------------2.79
9:56-----------------2.30
9:58-----------------0.74------------3803.06

The 3800 level was immediately broken.

10:01--------down 14.08-------------3788.24
10:02--------------16.38
10:04--------------18.73-------------3783.59

The market tries to hold at the 3,780 level and stay within sight of the 3,800 level. At this point, advancers still outnumbered decliners 46 to 34.

10:14--------------14.92
10:21--------------13.06------------3789.26

10:24--------------17.34
10:28--------------24.19------------3778.13

10:30--------------22.87
10:31--------------19.77
10:36--------------18.16------------3784.14

Selling soon took over in the last hour and a half of trading. The market now corrects from the surprising "50 point run up in the last 7 minutes" in yesterdays trading. A huge run up in such a short period is usually very difficult to sustain and a retracement is needed.

10:46--------down 23.61-------------3778.71
10:52--------------24.19
10:58--------------26.98
11:04--------------27.00
11:08--------------27.57
11:09--------------29.40
11:10--------------31.72
11:14--------------32.44
11:18--------------34.49
11:22--------------36.27
11:30--------------40.82
11:32--------------43.98-------------3758.34

The PSEi settles just above the 3750 level.

11:39--------down 41.59
11:42--------------39.02
11:43--------------36.31
11:45--------------35.77-------------3766.55
11:48--------------40.31
11:52--------------35.54
11:58--------------40.10
11:58--------------44.06
11:59--------------45.03------------3757.29 (day's low)
12:01--------------43.48------------3758.84 (-1.14%)
Market Close.

Advancers 40
Decliners 87

Value turnover PhP 4.20 bn
Cross transactions pHp 1.75 bn

Sectoral Indices.
Property -2.92%
Holdings -1.70%
Industrial -0.87%
Financial -0.47%
Services -0.02%
M-O +0.23%

Closing prices of select stocks - July 06, 2007

ABA - PhP 0.012
ALI - PhP 17.75
DGTL - PhP 1.56
EIB - PhP 0.56
GO - PhP 0.32
GOB - PhP 0.33
LOTO - PhP 15.50
MPI - PhP 4.30
NRCP - PhP 4.30
SUN - PhP O.94
V - PhP 1.82
WEB - PhP 0.060

Thursday, July 5, 2007

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index tops the 3800 level - July 05, 2007

Market comments:

From the Philippine Star . (* the same quote appears in the BusinessWorld) - July 05, 2007

The US equities and bonds markets were closed for their Independence Day (Fourth of July) Holiday.

PSEi previous close - 3731.66 (July 04, 2007)

The local equities market started listlessly as it lacked direction and it just continued its consolidation mode from yesterday.

time------------change-----------PSEi
9:31----------down 0.86
9:32------------up 0.59
9:33----------down 1.02
9:34------------up 0.59
9:35---------------3.68
9:37---------down 0.61
9:38-----------up 3.81
9:39--------down 0.39
9:40----------up 0.31
9:44--------down 0.07
9:45----------up 4.23
9:47-------------1.69
9:53-------------0.78----------3732.44

Despite the narrow range of trading as the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) finds a base support at 3730, the sentiment in the market was upbeat. At this point, Advancers already outnumbered Decliners 44 to 10.

The market picked up a bit in the next half hour.

9:55---------up 4.28
9:58------------6.85
10:03-----------8.89
10:07-----------9.18
10:13-----------9.24-----------3740.90
10:16----------10.85
10:20----------14.52
10:21----------15.16
10:22----------16.19
10:28----------20.25----------3751.91

For the next half hour or so of trading, the index consolidates at the 3750 level.

10:33-------up 17.39----------3749.05
10:36-----------17.65
10:44-----------17.10
10:46-----------17.59
10:48-----------17.67
11:00-----------17.71
11:01-----------18.85---------3750.51

The market goes past the 3750 level and challenges the 3760 all time high level.

11:14---------up 20.00-------3751.66
11:16------------24.65
11:18------------24.69
11:31------------25.51
11:33------------29.59-------3761.25
11:36------------30.98
11:37------------35.18-------3766.84

After touching a new high, the market pulls back as the trading day nears its end.

11:44--------up 34.68-------3766.34
11:48-----------25.21
11:53-----------22.94-------3754.60

The market seemed to settle at the 3750 level. But a huge buying surge in the last few minutes caught everyone by surprise.

11:54-------up 25.67
11:55----------26.00
11:56----------29.28--------3760.94
11:57----------35.57--------3767.23
11:58----------43.27--------3774.93
11:59----------59.99--------3791.65
12:01----------70.66--------3802.32 (+1.89%) NEW ALL TIME HIGH
Market Close.

Advancers 93
Decliners 32

Value turnover PhP 5.293 bn

Sectoral Indices were higher across-the-board.
Property +3.29%
M-O +3.25%
Industrial +2.00%
Holdings +1.63%
Financial +1.23%
Services +0.96%

Closing prices of select stocks - July 05, 2007
ABA - PhP 0.012
ALI - PhP 18.00
DGTL - PhP 1.60
EIB - PhP 0.56
GO - PhP 0.32
GOB - PhP 0.35
LOTO - PhP 15.50
MPI - PhP 4.40
NRCP - PhP 4.35
SUN - PhP 1.00
V - PhP 1.84
WEB - PhP 0.060

Wednesday, July 4, 2007

The day's market - July 04, 2007

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 41.87 points overnight in WallStreet and closed at 13577.30.
After going up the last four trading days by more than 4% and reaching new all time high levels, the Philippine Stock Market consolidates.


PSEi previous close - 3751.99 (July 03, 2007)

Momentum tried to carry the market higher in the opening minutes of trading.


time-------------change--------------PSEi
9:31-----------up 2.73 --------------3754.72
9:32--------------7.30 --------------3759.29 (the day's high)
9:36--------------4.28
9:38--------------5.26


After failing to reach higher levels (3760 which was yesterday's high, is the current resistance); the market moves into negative territory.


9:44--------down 3.52
9:45--------------6.25
9:52--------------1.81-------------3750.18


The 3750 level support holds for the moment and the market tries to rise again.


9:54----------up 4.79
9:58-------------3.61
10:06-----------0.04--------------3752.03

The upward trend falters and markets moves into a correction mode.

10:10-----down 0.37
10:17-----------3.58
10:24----------11.31
10:29----------14.41---------------3737.58

Market consolidates in a narrow range for the rest of the trading session.

10:37----down 12.98
10:39----------11.51
10:46----------10.60
10:48-----------9.95
10:59-----------8.12---------------3743.87

11:21-----down 15.44
11:35-----------12.69

11:41-----------16.68
11:47-----------15.29

11:52-----------13.37
11:53-----------16.46
11:57-----------17.65
12:01-----------20.33-------------3731.66 (-0.54%)
Market Close.

The market ended at its day's low. It settled at 3730, which was the previous all time high.

Advancers 80
Decliners 42

Value turnover PhP 4.372 bn
Cross transactions pHp 1.753 bn

Sectoral Indices.
Holdings +1.48%
M-O +1.42%
Services -0.28%
Property -0.68%
Financial -0.94%
Industrial -1.46%


Closing prices of select stocks - July 04, 2007
ABA - PhP 0.012
ALI - PhP 17.75
DGTL - PhP 1.60
EIB - PhP 0.56
GO - PhP 0.34
GOB - PhP 0.34
LOTO - PhP 15.50
MPI - PhP 4.45
NRCP - PhP 4.35
SUN - PhP 1.04
V - PhP 1.84
WEB - PhP 0.060

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

The Philippine Stock Market now trading at new all time high levels - July 03, 2007

The momentum from yesterday's rise (index wise at least) and the huge gains in WallStreet overnight had the market jump from the opening bell.

PSEi previous close - 3691.68 (July 02, 2007)

time---------------up--------------PSEi
9:31---------------20.42---------3712.10

The 3700 level was easily breached. With this strong opening, a chart gap at 3691-3712 was opened.

9:33---------------26.40
9:34---------------27.43
9:35---------------29.73
9:38---------------29.84
9:39---------------35.73
9:40---------------36.84----------3728.84

A few minutes into trading and the PSEi was already challenging its previous all time high at 3730.

9:41---------------40.46----------3732.14

With the market at new all time highs territory, it paused from its strong advance and just consolidated above the 3730 level (with 3740 as a resistance) in the next half hour of trading.

9:42--------------44.71
9:43--------------45.29
9:45--------------47.86
9:47--------------48.51
9:49--------------49.20-------------3740.88

9:54--------------44.91
9:55--------------38.25-------------3729.93

9:57--------------44.55
10:08------------47.69-------------3739.34

For the rest of the day's trading, the market moved a level higher but just traded near the 3750 level. It moved within the 3740-3760 range.

10:10------------53.89------------3745.57
10:11------------57.54
10:12------------61.00
10:13------------63.52------------3755.20

10:20------------58.69
10:37------------54.19
10:40------------60.43-----------3752.11

10:45------------52.20-----------3743.88

10:52------------54.54
10:53------------60.35
10:55------------62.54-----------3754.22

10:58------------57.14
10:59------------56.36-----------3748.04

11:00------------61.76
11:01------------62.33
11:02------------63.95-----------3755.63

11:04------------59.35
11:16------------58.05------------3749.73

11:20------------61.43------------3753.11

11:23------------51.75------------3743.43

11:29------------55.17
11:33------------59.45
11:37------------62.25
11:39------------65.32------------3757.00

11:43------------60.29------------3751.97
11:49------------64.62
11:51------------67.69
11:52------------68.81------------3760.49 (new all time high)

11:56------------63.37
11:57------------61.48
11:58------------58.21
12:01------------60.31------------3751.99 (+1.63%)
Market Close.

Advancers 106
Decliners 24

Value turnover PhP 5.955 bn
Cross transactions PhP 2.929 bn

Sectoral indices were up across-the-board.
Property +3.05%
M-O +2.22%
Services +1.94%
Industrial +1.21%
Holdings +0.95%
Financial +0.36%

Closing prices of select stocks - July 3, 2007
ABA - PhP 0.012
ALI - PhP 17.75
DGTL - PhP 1.60
EIB - PhP 0.55
GO - PhP 0.30
GOB - PhP 0.31
LOTO - PhP 15.25
MPI - PhP 4.40
NRCP - PhP 4.35
SUN - PhP 0.96
V - PhP 1.84
WEB - PhP 0.060

Before the market opens - July 3, 2007

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up by 126.81 (+0.95%) points overnight in WallStreet. It closed at 13,353.43.


Philippine Treasury Bills were up yesterday at the resumption its auction after the Bureau of Treasury (BTr) suspended the sale in June.
91-day ----------3.477% from 2.996%
182-day---------4.639% from 4.274%
0ne year--------5.438% from 5.174%

The tenors' rise reflected concerns on the governments ability in meeting its budget deficit targets; due to lower collections in the BIR & Customs for the 1st half of the year. Local debt borrowing, is one of the options to cover any shortfall and this may put pressure on interest rates.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) purchased more than $2 bn from the foreign exchange (FX) market in May alone to hold back the peso appreciation.
As of May, the BSP reported Gross International Reserves (GIR) of $25.80 bn, which was more than $700 mn more than end-April's $25.08 bn.

Monday, July 2, 2007

The day's market - July 02, 2007

The market opened generally weak and directionless in the first thirty minutes of trading.

PSEi previous close - 3665.23 (June 29, 2007)

time------------change--------------PSEi
9:31---------down 7.66-------------3657.57
9:34---------------8.11-------------3657.12 (day's low)
9:38---------------0.27
9:40---------------1.87
9:43-----------up 0.57
9:45---------------1.35
9:46---------down 3.41
9:47------------up 0.13
9:55---------down 5.95

The Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) however slowly picked up as index issues turned higher. The second and thirdliner issues were however being sold down.

10:00---------up 6.79
10:10------------7.00
10:15------------9:42
10:16-----------14.47
10:19-----------18.59---------------3683.82

The market hovers at the 3680 level.

10:26--------up 17.77
10:45-----------11.40--------------3676.63
10:48-----------16.09
10:51-----------17.61
11:01-----------16.68
11:04-----------17.31
11:14-----------20.70--------------3685.93

The support at 3680 held today.

11:14--------up 15.13
11:19-----------14.53--------------3679.76

The index closed strong in the last 15 minutes of the trading day.

11:45--------up 20.66
11:49-----------22.97
11:55-----------27.20
11:56-----------29.33
11:58-----------32.32---------------3697.55 (day's high)

11:59-----------30.32
12:01-----------26.45---------------3691.68 (+0.72%)
Market Close.

The PSEi is currently testing the 3,700 level but sentiment is mixed as the sell down in the second and thirdliners showed signs of panic. Some investors seem to be concerned that some issues that experienced recent strong run ups, may be subjected to investigations.

Decliners heavily outnumbered gainers despite the day's gains.

Advancers 31
Decliners 114

Value turnover PhP 4.602 bn
Cross transactions PhP 2.042 bn

Sectoral Indices.
Financial +1.87%
Holdings +1.08%
Property +0.28%
Services -0.04%
Industrial -0.63%
M-O -2.64%

Closing prices os select stocks - June 29, 2007
ABA - PhP 0.012
ALI - PhP 17.00
DGTL - PhP 1.62
EIB - PhP 0.54
GO - PhP 0.28
GOB - PhP 0.30
LOTO - PhP 14.50
MPI - pHp 4.40
NRCP - PhP 4.40
SUN - PhP 0.90
V - PhP 1.80
WEB - PhP 0.0575