The Philippine Stock Market - October 27, 2008

Today will go down on record as a BLACK MONDAY in OCTOBER. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) fell a record 12.27% as it experienced a long continous decline. Investors scrambled to sell holdings on emotions (fear and panic) and on various economic concerns (volatility in the DJIA; lower company earnings; worldwide recession; inflation; job cuts; peso depreciation; fund redemptions etc).

PSEi previous close - 1953.49 (October 26)

time-----------down-------------PSEi
9:31----------20.62------------1932.87

The local equities market opened lower as it catches up with the drop in the other bourses last Friday. The PSEi falls further from the key 2000 level.

9:32----------22.38
9:34----------23.49------------1930.00
9:36----------42.49------------1911.00

The Oct. 25, 2005 low at 1917.98 is broken. The sell-down continues to cascade.

9:37----------44.41
9:38----------45.08
9:39----------45.93------------1907.96
9:40----------58.35------------1895.14

The 1900 level is broken. The decline continues to accelerate.

9:42----------61.09
9:43----------61.58
9:44----------61.88
9:46----------65.65
9:47----------72.20
9:49----------73.53
9:50----------75.61
9:51----------77.72
9:52----------79.37
9:53----------80.31-------------1873.18 (-4.11%)

9:44----------83.58
9:56----------89.61-------------1863.88 (-4.59%)

The September 12, 2005 low at 1866.08 is broken. The market continues to look for a support.

9:59----------90.13
10:00---------90.77
10:02---------93.70
10:03--------101.13-------------1852.36 (-5.18%)

10:04---------98.45
10:07--------102.06
10:08--------103.40
10:09--------106.62
10:10--------108.33-------------1845.16 (-5.55%)
10:11--------112.95
10:12--------114.42
10:13--------116.74-------------1836.75 (-5.98%)
10:14--------120.56
10:15--------121.60-------------1831.89 (-6.22%)

The decline temporarily halts in the next ten minutes.

10:18--------119.37
10:20--------113.47
10:22--------116.56
10:23--------117.22

10:26--------122.29-------------1831.20 (-6.26%)

The sell-off resumes.

10:27--------124.09
10:28--------127.25
10:29--------128.33
10:30--------131.80
10:31--------132.64
10:32--------134.67
10:33--------134.79
10:34--------136.40
10:35--------137.03--------------1816.46 (-7.01%)

10:36--------138.37
10:39--------138.79
10:40--------141.16
10:41--------142.31
10:42--------144.25
10:44--------145.94
10:46--------147.22
10:47--------148.03--------------1805.46 (-7.58%)

The July 4, 2005 low at 1805.49 is broken.

10:49--------148.75
10:50--------148.94
10:51--------149.15--------------1804.34 (-7.64%)

10:54--------145.27
10:58--------148.56
10:59--------152.80--------------1800.69 (-7.82%)

With still an hour to go and the PSEi down already nearly 8% and the 1800 level tested; investors agained turned panicky as the 10% threshhold decline is within sight. If this is reached, the market will be halted.

11:00--------161.81--------------1791.68

There was no more stopping the wild selldowns.

11:02--------162.71--------------1790.78
11:04--------165.02--------------1788.47 (-8.44%)

The Dec. 21, 2004 low at 2790 is broken.

11:06--------165.47
11:07--------167.30--------------1786.19 (-8.56%)
11:08--------167.88
11:09--------170.11
11:11--------170.58
11:12--------174.35
11:13--------176.74--------------1776.15 (-9.05%)
11:14--------181.60
11:15--------183.93
11:17--------187.64--------------1765.85 (-9.61%)
11:18--------188.48
11:19--------193.21
11:20--------194.91--------------1758.58 (-9.98%)

11:23--------196.03--------------1757.46 (-10.03%)

Trading in the Philippine Stock Exchange is halted. The 10% decline "circuit breaker" is reached. Trading is to resume in 15 minutes. This temporarily suspension was supposed to stymie the panic selling in the market.

At this point:
Value turnover: PhP 964 mn
Cross transactions: PhP 283 mn

Advacers 2
Decliners 112
Unchanged 12

11:38--------201.12-------------1752.37 (-10.30%)

The trading halt only pent up selling pressure. A new wave of selldowns even accelerates the drop.

11:39-------206.57
11:40-------208.14
11:41-------208.66
11:42-------210.77---------------1742.72 (-10.74%)

The November 16, 2004 low at 1743.60 is broken.

11:43-------212.49
11:44-------215.46---------------1738.03 (-11.03%)
11:45-------218.90
11:46-------220.28
11:48-------220.70
11:49-------222.74
11:53-------228.71---------------1724.78 (-11.71%)

The October 25, 2004 low at 1725 is broken.

11:34-------230.30
11:55-------234.49---------------1719.00 (-12.00%)
11:56-------235.20
11:57-------238.66
11:59-------241.01---------------1712.48 (-12.34%)

This is a new four-year low.

12:01-------239.66---------------1713.83 (-12.27%)

Value turnover: PhP 1.567 bn
Cross transactions: PhP 482 mn

Immediate supports:
1700.42 - (Sept 21, 2004 low)
1679.13 (Sept. 17, 2004 low)

Advancers 5
Decliners 123
Unchanged 13

Sectoral Indices all went into a free-fall.
Services -13.25%
Holdings -10.69%
Financial -10.52%
Property -9.76%
M-O -9.70%
Industrial -8.88%

The Day's ONLY Gainers:
JTH: PhP 1.90; +18.75%
MED: PhP 0.27; +8.00%
PNX: PhP 2.55; +6.25%
APO: PhP 1.36; +4.62%
ATI: PhP 2.95; +1.72%

The Day's Biggest Decliners:
EIBA: PhP 0.165; -38.89%
TDY: PhP 2.20; -37.14%
MUSX: PhP 0.10; -33.33%
MRC: PhP 0.155; -31.11%
CMT: PhP 0.30; -28.57%

At mid-day:
Asian equities markets were down.
The Philippine Peso was at PhP 49.313 vs US$ 1.00.

The Biggest PSEi Movers:
TEL: PhP 1850; -89.13 pts
BPI: PhP 36.00; -17.54 pts
BDO: PhP 22.50; -17.04 pts
AC: PhP 200.00; -14.95 pts
EDC: PhP 2.50; -11.82 pts

The Biggest PSEi Decliners:
BDO: PhP 22.50; -23.73%
URC: PhP 4.60; -16.30%
MBT: PhP 19.75; -15.96%
MEG: PhP 0.64; -15.79%
GLO: PhP 725.00; -15.70%


Investors are expected to trail trading in WallStreet. As of 5:00 pm Manila time; the DJIA Futures (as tracked in the internet) is down by almost 300 pts or 3.5% with the DJIA just below 8000.

If the 8000 level is broken at tonight's trading; the DJIA's recent low at 7882.51 reached last October 10, 2008 might be tested and support is seen at 7520.63 (March 7, 2003 low).